Yankees Off Season 2017

User avatar
qwik3457bb
Posts: 1028
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:54 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby qwik3457bb » Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:57 pm

joeybagadonutz38 wrote:
qwik3457bb wrote:Walker's marginal value is something like $15-20 million over a full season, so even if he plays just 1/3 of a season, his value covers his salary.

They'd have done with Todd Frazier months ago if Frazier would've settled for a one year deal, but he wanted at least two years.


Is Scott Boras making up these numbers? Whoever is making them up needs to put the bottle down. 1.4 WAR is decent but it's nowhere near $20 Mil a year and if it really is then it certainly shouldn't be. Silly values like that has led to the market correction, which was much needed if they want to play with a cap and penalize large market teams for spending money.


Well, he was 1.4 WAR but only played 2/3 of the season. So his real WAR rate is (given error bars on the stat) between 2 and 2.5 WAR, and that's where my marginal value estimate comes from.

You could make the counter-argument that with his age and injury history, you can't count on him for more than 1-1.5 WAR, and that's fair enough. In which case his marginal value is $8-12 million, and even with that assumption, Walker still covers $4-5 million easily.
Plus, no qualifying offer, so no loss of draft pick or IFA money.

Given the Yanks' roster composition, this is almost a no-brainer at the price paid. And Torres and Andujar will still get their shot, maybe in the 2nd half this year, maybe next year. Unless the Yanks trade one or both for a true oitching ace, should one become available.
0 x
Knowledge is good.
Emil Faber, 1904

User avatar
qwik3457bb
Posts: 1028
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:54 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby qwik3457bb » Tue Mar 13, 2018 3:58 pm

joeybagadonutz38 wrote:I just had to look at their 2017 numbers. Weather here has my feed all F'd up. Anyway Drury and Walker are both slightly above average players but at least Drury is 25 and may have SOME upside. At this point Walker is what he is and his best days are behind him. At least he's not making a ton of money but I think even if he's just average the Yankees will give him the Stephen Drew treatment as long as they are winning. Same for Drury only with a leash 3x as long.

2017
Drury____.267 AVG ___.317 OBP___.764 OPS___13 HR'S____63 RBI'S____1.6 WAR
Walker___.265 AVG____.362 OPB___.801 OPS___14 HR'S____49 RBI'S____1.4 WAR

Do those numbers look familiar? They should
2017
Headley__.273 AVG___.352 OBP___752 OPS___12 HR'S____61 RBI's____1.8 WAR

At least they compare to Headley's best year in a while but still. Not much upside with these moves. The rest of the team/offseason is like fresh pizza out of the oven after being stuck on a desert island for 6 months. The Walker signing is like the bird that comes drops a load of shit right into the middle of the pie. At least that's the way I see it. The Astro's lineup is still longer than ours. If these were insurance moves- I'd get it. But it looks like they are both in the starting lineup on opening day.

And yes it does stink of that no baseball knowledge figurehead douchebag Levine with with his roadkill haircut troll looking ass. There hasn't been much to complain about so far until today but I can honestly tell you that I knew it was coming the whole time. They just can't help themselves.

Right, they are both, as right now, similar to Headley. But:
There's two of then, not one, and more importantly, they cost less than half of what Headley alone costs.
0 x
Knowledge is good.
Emil Faber, 1904

User avatar
qwik3457bb
Posts: 1028
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:54 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby qwik3457bb » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:05 pm

BigGuy wrote:I agree. Wade deserves a shot now that Torres isn't going to be starting the year in NY. Give the kid a shot. This Walker deal smells like a Levine want. Jake Cave losing his roster spot in this deal kind of pisses me off too even though Cave never had much chance on this team. I hope he gets claimed and has a good career somewhere else.


I don't think so, Big.

I think Cashman wanted Walker before turning to the trade for Drury, but his contract price was too high, and put the Yanks over the cap. But when Walker's price came way down, Cashman felt he had to act, if only because of the roster crunch created by the inability to move Ellsbury.

None of the other regular position players could back up at 1st, especially if Bird gets hurt or is ineffective for some reason. (I don't expect that, but it is possible.) Austin can only play 1B and OF, and they don't need a 7th OF with the 5 they have and Wade already on the roster. Lind's only other position is DH, and they certainly don't need help there, either.

Don't underestimate the positional versatility factor here in the days of 12 to 13-man pitching staffs.
0 x
Knowledge is good.
Emil Faber, 1904

User avatar
qwik3457bb
Posts: 1028
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:54 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby qwik3457bb » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:10 pm

yank0428 wrote: I'm curious to how Fowler is going to do. I really wanted to see him play last year. I wonder where Kaprillian is at in his rehab. That kid looked like he could be a stud if healthy.


Yep.
I said last year that even if Gray does what he's supposed to, the A's break even on the deal if even one of the prospects they traded Gray for becomes a solid major league for them for a few years. If one hits it big, or two of them become solid regulars. If all three of them make it, or one of them becomes a star, it's a steal for the A's.

The odds are low on each of them, separately, but quite high that at least one of them makes it.
0 x
Knowledge is good.
Emil Faber, 1904

User avatar
yank0428
Posts: 850
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 2:00 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby yank0428 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:26 pm

qwik3457bb wrote:
yank0428 wrote: I'm curious to how Fowler is going to do. I really wanted to see him play last year. I wonder where Kaprillian is at in his rehab. That kid looked like he could be a stud if healthy.


Yep.
I said last year that even if Gray does what he's supposed to, the A's break even on the deal if even one of the prospects they traded Gray for becomes a solid major league for them for a few years. If one hits it big, or two of them become solid regulars. If all three of them make it, or one of them becomes a star, it's a steal for the A's.

The odds are low on each of them, separately, but quite high that at least one of them makes it.

Just looked. Fowler and Mateo not doing much in ST but I noticed Slade Heathcott is doing great. I didn't even know they picked him up. Hitting.467 in 15 ABs. I'd like to see him make it. He had tough luck.
0 x

User avatar
BigGuy
Posts: 14279
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:40 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby BigGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:58 pm

Yankees 2, Tigers 2: It’s a tie

Some decent performances from the Yankees highlight an otherwise unspectacular game.


By Matt Ferenchick@MattF15 Mar 13, 2018, 4:18pm EDT

Image
Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports

Despite putting out a fairly full strength lineup, it took the Yankees quite a long time to do anything on offense.

Through the first seven innings, the Yankees recorded just two hits, scoring zero runs. The pitching did quite well, however, and that allowed for the Yankees to take a lead in an eighth inning rally that came out of nowhere.

Down 1-0, Didi Gregorius led off the bottom of the eighth inning with a home run, just the third hit for the Yankees on the day. After that Aaron Hicks singled, and both Adam Lind and Gleyber Torres walked to load the bases. Shane Robinson grounded into a force out at second, but the Tigers couldn’t turn two, allowing a run to score and give the Yankees the lead.

However, Giovanny Gallegos coughed that run up in the top of the ninth. The Yankees got a runner to third in the bottom of ninth, but couldn’t push it across. The teams decided to end things there, and the game finished in a 2-2 tie, because spring training.

Other than Gallegos, the pitching was pretty solid. CC Sabathia got the start. He allowed a run on a home run, but was mostly decent. Sabathia finished after allowing four hits and a walk in his four innings, also striking out one. The run was the first he’s allowed in six innings this spring.

After that, several key members of the Yankees’ bullpen made appearances. Adam Warren, Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, and Chad Green each threw an inning, with none of them allowing a run. All four them allowed exactly one baserunner, but in total, it was pretty good work from the bullpen.

Up until the eight inning, the lineup did not do much of anything. The lone hits prior to the eight inning came from Lind and Torres. They both singled in the third inning, but Brett Gardner grounded into a double play before the Yankees could capitalize on that.

Despite the lack of a win for either team, there were some encouraging signs for the Yankees. Several key bullpen pieces looked good. Gregorius hit his third home run of the spring, all three coming in the last week. Plus, you saw solid days from Torres and Lind. It’s also looking pretty clear that Gallegos probably won’t make the team out of spring.

Box score.
0 x
"Leave the gun. Take the cannoli."

User avatar
BigGuy
Posts: 14279
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:40 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby BigGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:03 pm

Yankees: Is Neil Walker another rabbit out of Cashman’s hat?

by Ben Green

The Yankees signed Neil Walker, a proven veteran infielder, to a one-year discounted contract, but can he stay healthy? That’s Brian Cashman’s latest gamble.

It had to be a plan. Just a short time ago, I was surprised that the Yankees signed first baseman Adam Lind, to a minor league contract. After all, he is a proven veteran with great stats. Surely Lind could do better elsewhere.

There must have been conditional promises to him and therefore, the opt-out possibility before the season begins. Now I know that Lind was just an insurance policy.

I firmly believe general manager Brian Cashman was already close to getting Neil Walker, who made $17 million-plus with the Mets last year only to sign for $5 million now — surely a feat no one could have predicted.

Just a month ago, we were all talking about potential signing Walker, Todd Frazier or Mike Moustakas at between $10-15 million. Now Lind looks expendable even though I’m sure he will land on another major league team, hopefully in the NL because he’s a dangerous hitter the Yankees don’t need to face.

Walker is as injury prone as Greg Bird. The former Pirate turned Met turned Brewer hasn’t been able to take the field without injury the last two years, playing about 110 games per seasons.

However, he did hit better than .270 and post an OPS well over .800 during the times he was healthy, numbers very similar to his career average.

Walker hit 32 home runs with the Mets in pitcher-friendly Citi-field. Yankee Stadium is very much a hitters ballpark. How will that translate for the Yanks?

I am certain that Cashman signed this guy just to platoon with another young and less experienced Yankee infielder. To me, Walker seems like the perfect fit to share the job at second base with Tyler Wade, and also to back up Bird at first.

What a coup for Cashman — if Walker stays healthy.

I fully expect Walker to put up better all-around offensive numbers in the Bronx while bringing veteran leadership and playoff experience from his years with the Pirates.

I don’t think the Yanks will overuse Walker and thus try to keep his back problems in check as he brings the final piece to the Bombers infield puzzle for a minimal price and still leaves room to acquire a pitching rental later in the season if needed.

I do believe Cashman pulled the proverbial rabbit from his hat with this deal and we will all laud him later. So take a look at the feature picture and imagine it in pinstripes.
0 x
"Leave the gun. Take the cannoli."

User avatar
BigGuy
Posts: 14279
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:40 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby BigGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:07 pm

The Forgotten Son(ny) [2018 Season Preview]

March 13, 2018 by Domenic Lanza 205 Comments

Image
(Butch Dill/USA Today)

There was a great deal of consternation about the state of the Yankees rotation during the off-season, and whether or not that was justified remains an unanswerable question. A great deal of that justification – or lack thereof – hinges upon the fact that the team dramatically upgraded its rotation 2018 outlook well before the off-season began; in point of fact, that upgrade occurred on July 31, 2017, when Sonny Gray was acquired from the Oakland A’s, in exchange for James Kaprielian, Dustin Fowler, and Jorge Mateo. It seems as though Gray’s place on the team and ability to stabilize the middle of the rotation has been forgotten, be it due to his relatively unassuming performance with the team, or the simple fact that there is little flash to his substance or style. Regardless, Gray is here, and I’m certain the Yankees couldn’t be happier.

The Story So Far
There are two ways to look at Gray’s time in pinstripes thus far. The first is on a simple run-prevention basis, at which he excelled. Gray’s 3.72 ERA with the Yankees translates into a 122 ERA+, which would have been good for tenth in the American League last year, or twentieth in all of baseball. There were concerns about his ability to perform at such a high-level when moving from the pitcher’s paradise that is Oakland Coliseum to the hitter’s haven of Yankee Stadium, and yet he excelled.

Of course, it’s not that simple.

When you look beneath the hood, you see some regression from Gray. His strikeout (down 2.3 percentage points), walk (up 2.2 percentage points), groundball (down 9.4 percentage points), and home run (up 3.8 percentage points) numbers all trended in the wrong direction after the trade, and that can be visualized in his 4.87 FIP with the Yankees. By that measure he overperformed his peripherals significantly, and that’s generally a precursor for regression.

How much of it had to do with Yankee Stadium, though? The short answer is quite a bit. Gray made eleven starts with the Yankees – five at home, and six on the road. The numbers breakdown as follows:

Home: 28.2 IP, 3.8 BB 9, 9.1 K/9, 8 HR, 0.8 GB/FB, 5.65 ERA
Road: 36.2 IP, 3.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 3 HR, 1.1 GB/FB, 2.21 ERA


Gray struck out and walked more batters at home, and allowed way more home runs and fly balls there, as well. This is a small sample size within a small sample size, so it could be a matter of noise, but it’s something that bears watching over time. And it also raises a question:

Does He Pitch Differently In Yankee Stadium?
Not really. Let’s take a look at his pitch usage in pinstripes:

Image

Gray is a legitimate four-pitch pitcher, and he dabbles in a fifth and sixth offering at times. And in 2017, and his career as a whole, he seems to go with whatever’s working over the course of a single game. The fluctuation from game-to-game doesn’t tell us much of anything.

That being said, it may simply be that Gray is nibbling more often at home. That could explain the increase in walks and strikeouts, though he did actually throw more pitches per batter on the road (3.88) than at home (3.82). And, while this doesn’t quite account for his spots within the zone, Gray’s zone-percentage was virtually identical at home and on the road.

There may not be a simple answer to the question regarding Gray’s shakiness at Yankee Stadium, so a “wait and see” approach may be the best approach. It is definitely something that bears watching, though. And, as a reminder:

He Wasn’t A Product Of Oakland Coliseum
Gray has thrown 386.0 IP of 3.50 ERA ball at O.Co, to go along with 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. He has thrown 384.1 IP elsewhere, with a 3.40 ERA, 8.1 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9. Yankee Stadium may be a different beast than the other parks that Gray has pitched in, but it’s worth remembering that he has been a high-end starter regardless of the ballpark.

The Projection Systems
Steamer: 186.0 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 4.26 ERA, 4.29 FIP
ZiPS: 168.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.64 ERA, 3.96 FIP
PECOTA: 174.1 IP, 8.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 3.98 ERA, 4.30 DRA
Not great, Bob.

Steamer and PECOTA are both giving a fair amount of weight to Gray’s injury-riddled and oft-ineffective 2016 – and that’s fair. ZiPS is essentially taking his 2017 at face value and copying and pasting it for 2018. And, given his career to-date, that’s fair, too. If permitted a bit of optimism, I would give the most weight to that.

My Take
I’m a big fan of Gray; I was ecstatic when they traded for him, and I’m excited to see what he can do in a full season for the Yankees. There were some warts on his shiny ERA following the trade, and I can understand why he is viewed as something of a question mark heading into 2018. At the same time, though, he is a 28-year-old starter that has pitched like an ace at times, and has a fantastic repertoire – and he’s only really expected to be the team’s third starter. And there aren’t many – if any – better third starters in the game.
0 x
"Leave the gun. Take the cannoli."

User avatar
BigGuy
Posts: 14279
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 2:40 pm

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby BigGuy » Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:21 pm





0 x
"Leave the gun. Take the cannoli."

User avatar
davis2
Posts: 2874
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:31 pm
Location: Central NY

Re: Yankees Off Season 2017

Postby davis2 » Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:27 pm

hampfan wrote:
BigGuy wrote:Yankees youngsters were never going to carry them all the way

Teams need youth in these times of tougher drug testing. The Baby Bombers played a huge role in getting the Yankees all the way to Game 7 of last year’s American League Championship Series. Yet you don’t want to overdo the youth movement when you’re trying to win it all, and in Walker and Drury, the Yankees found upgrades that simultaneously make them less dependent on the kids while not blocking their long-term chances to make it here.

“These aren’t easy conversations to have,” Cashman said, “but when you’re having them, especially after all the dialogue we’ve had, as you walk through it, you can’t be afraid to ask the next question. … If you don’t ask, you might not get the result we have today.”

That result increases the likelihood of the Yankees attaining their optimal result. Even if it’ll be less of a storybook tale.


My gut says neither Drury nor Walker will get us there, despite Davidoff's hot-to-trot attitude. And that we'll be really sorry if we ever trade Andujar, never mind Torres, at least before they've had a chance to show their stuff to Yankee fans. I'd wait for the off-season to make a move for a pitcher w/ the credentials of a Fullmer, say. I'm not a happy customer about any of this turnabout, but what else is new? I'm looking at another foot of snow to shovel off into oblivion.
They will both be ready sometime this season, patience my friend! We are supposed to get 7"-11" of that white shit, from now until Thursday... Fire up the snowblower!!!
0 x
The Red Sox Suck!


Return to “Yankees”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 24 guests

cron